A Roaster’s Thoughts on NYC and the Future of Our Industry

It’s 7:30 p.m. at the New York airport. I’m waiting to board our JetBlue flight back to Raleigh. We just wrapped up a week in New York, and there’s a wealth of insight to review with you. A roaster’s thoughts on NYC — and the future of our industry — feels overdue. New York has long served as one half of the two poles of innovation in our industry. Much of what happens here — and in its West Coast counterparts like Los Angeles — represents the first western adaptations of international coffee momentum. I’ve been a direct contributor to this industry for almost a decade, and a purveyor of it for years before. Throughout that time, I can confidently say Los Angeles and the greater Orange County area serve as the benchmark for tomorrow’s cafe culture — what drinks will be in demand and what media activity looks like. Meanwhile, New York is the best gauge of what the rest of the country will do in their regular coffee buying preferences in six to twelve months. This makes for some very interesting observations, as follows:

The Continued Rise of Corporatized Niche Specialty Chains
(WatchHouse, La Cabra)

Sure, they weren’t the first. Remember Blue Bottle’s boom in the 2010s? Or when Proud Mary struck U.S. soil? Neither do we. It feels like they’ve always been here. There was a moment — pre-pandemic — when it genuinely seemed like specialty coffee would remain a neighborhood-driven activity. We even saw a bit of a pause on large-scale expansion about two or three years ago. But these chains haven’t stopped — and likely won’t — whether it’s ambition or cost savings driving it. Watching La Cabra establish a U.S.-based roastery in Brooklyn to reduce import costs for their hundreds of U.S. wholesale accounts (much like Onyx does in the EU) is proof of that. All of this typically happening via VC or private equity funding-something still incredibly rare for our industry. WatchHouse opened their second U.S. location this week, and I was privileged to be there for it. They’re not slowing down. It’s now up to us to either strengthen and support our own local scenes — or welcome these chains, with the risk that they eventually devolve into scaled-down versions of specialty, much like Blue Bottle has, simply by virtue of size. Or evolve to better serve our own clientele, more about this below. 

Clean Coffee Won’t Go Anywhere — Yet

Despite the momentum around fermented and processed coffees showing no signs of slowing, a lot of old-guard industry folks are crying wolf. Yes, it’s incredibly hard to ignore the sell-through power of a juicy, fermentation-forward coffee — especially when it helps a first-time customer actually taste the flavor notes listed on the bag. But the reality is: it’s still too soon for widespread cafe adoption. I visited nearly a dozen new and established, industry-relevant cafes across the city. I can count on less than one hand how many processed coffees I saw on their menus. Many cafes are still owned by folks who lean toward classic profiles — think Scott Rao-washed-Gesha-type preferences. That said, I truly believe we are on the cusp of a massive generational shift in cafe ownership, and as a result, an eventual shift in customer preferences driven by habitual barista recommendations and cafe offerings. Washed coffees aren’t going to disappear overnight, despite what some industry names claim quietly or on Reddit forums. But how long until the shift? Honestly, who knows.

Ritualization > Quality

Candles in bathrooms. Clean, minimal lines. Riskier, more expressive build-outs. More intentional menus. Every thriving cafe I visited in New York leaned heavily on one thing: ritualized customer experience. Ordering is part of the ritual. Visiting the bathroom is part of the ritual — dim lighting, a niche candle burning. I double-checked the quality of both La Cabra locations against a smaller, more quality-focused shop — a local favorite. La Cabra fell short on a wealth of quality metrics at both locations. But here’s the kicker: La Cabra was ten times busier. “Yeah, Bryan, but they’re a massive brand with international presence.” Sure — but what I didn’t mention is that I’ve compared these metrics to contemporaries of theirs in other parts of the country. And it holds true: a little extra care toward how customers feel in your space — the ritual of being there — can outweigh actual product quality. Social validation absolutely helps of course. But this focus on intentional customer experience creates an echo chamber of preference, a fast-tracked community of avid regulars.
Even more interesting: when ritualization pairs with quality, it organically births social proof. I’ve witnessed this happening in my own shop.

Ritualization > Quality (Continued)

Despite having nearly a week in the city with almost no meetings, I didn’t make it to the Brooklyn/Williamsburg area. Disgraceful, I know. I bring this up because — despite the flood of Sey recommendations — I didn’t go. I’ve personally spoken with the founders through Iris years ago. They are wonderful folks — truly. But the elephant in the room our industry is too scared to talk about is Sey’s culture — whether curated directly or indirectly (likely the latter, knowing the kindness of the folks behind it). In a landscape of competitive hospitality, pretentiousness extinguishes the spirit of curiosity faster than poor quality. You don’t have to look far to hear the perceptions surrounding their Brooklyn spot. When there are messages being written on your front door from the public calling you a force for pretension and cruelty, I think it should be addressed. And I try to say this with humility. I own a reputable cafe, and while it’s not yet at the scale of Sey’s greatness, I empathize deeply with how quickly things can shift culturally inside your space without immediately noticing as ownership. It’s humbling. And it serves to myself personally as a stark reminder that — despite our moderate success at Iris — we’re still students of this industry, and more importantly, students of life.
I am now trying to remind myself of that daily. Serving another human is the greatest act one person can offer another. And honestly, cafes like WatchHouse and La Cabra are trailblazing into tomorrow by reminding us of that today.

New York was a success — both in theory and in real-world metrics.
As some of you know, my former business partner stepped away from Promethium shortly after we launched. For transparency’s sake: it wasn’t a massive surprise for me. But it did create some serious logistical and strategic challenges that I’m admittedly still working through. That said, we both agreed this opportunity for her was a one-in-a-million chance, and it would’ve been crazy for her to pass it up — even if it meant stepping away from us. Sure, I wish it had been handled a bit differently outside of my control. Yet I poured way too much into them — both personally and professionally — not to be excited for them and to root for them. I’ve always said that seeing amazing people move on from a cafe or project feels a lot like sending your kids to college. In this case, it definitely feels like that— even with the challenges. I share this because our journey in this industry — whether it be through Iris, Promethium, or my personal life — has been filled with barriers, challenges, and people working against us - whether consciously or not. And like life, it has its lesser-desireable moments. But we’ve always overcome. And we won’t stop until we do here as well. I do this because I love you guys. Hospitality — especially in coffee — is one of my first loves. I’ve spent a large portion of my young life dedicated to serving you, missing birthdays and losing sleep because of that love. And until you are actively receiving what we believe to be the best, most intentional version of coffee humanly possible — and maybe even beyond that — we will continue to show up. Heck, we probably won’t stop even then. It’s all for you. Always.

I know it’s been a minute since we shared our thoughts on perspective-shattering coffees. We hear you. We’re about to release a slew of them in the coming weeks. I believe we’ve finally nailed the profile for the Sudan Rume Hybrid Wash CGLE that we’ve had tucked away for just the right moment. Expect some lovely fruit bombs from forward-thinking producers — including the most stunning bourbon lot we’ve tasted in recent memory. Coming soon as well: a Bolivian Gesha we’re loving, and a wild, wild, wild fruit bomb Gesha that reminds us of the sorts of lots that made Hydrangea and Dak famous. Cannot wait for you to try these. Hang tight. Hang in there. Hang on to your handlebars. We’re about to absolutely decimate what you thought was possible from a roaster.

With love,
b